We are on the record calling for no double-dip recession. The jobs data and positive earnings reports strengthen our position.  The valuations of equities remain extremely low. Also, the IMF revised upward it world growth estimate for the year this week. We believe these data serve as a reminder that the recovery is continuing.

Next week, all the focus will be on earnings.  Other economic news will take a back seat to the outlook given in next week’s announcements. We look for strong earnings to come through.

This week’s factoid:  BP predicts it may be able to contain all of the flow from its broken well in the next four days.

Bonus factoid: In 1943, Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, predicted that there would be a “world market for maybe five computers.”

The European debt crisis continues to be the buzz in the media. After some analysis, we believe that, discounting currency changes, a slowdown in European growth might not be all that terrible for the U.S. economy. Look for a more thorough report on the subject from us in the coming two weeks or so.

This week’s factoid:   The Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in London estimates that $4.8 billion in productivity is lost worldwide due to the World Cup.

Last week provided a nice set of gains, with the Dow up 2.81%, the S&P up 2.50%, and the Nasdaq trailing, but still up at 1.10%.

We’ve gotten some interesting new insight into the popular BABs (Build America Bonds). BABs are part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which was signed into law on February 17, 2009. In short, BABs look attractive because the Federal government picks up the tab for the tax on such bonds- so municipalities are able to offer bonds that compete with corporate issues. This sounds like a great arrangement for investors. And it can be- if everything works as planned. However, if the municipality goes into default, the federal government holds back the portion of the interest on the bonds for which it is responsible. BABs, then, are not as great as some would believe.

We have noted that had one waited to sell until even significantly after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, he would have avoided the bulk of the losses of the markets. The markets were not perfectly “efficient,” allowing time to act even after the news broke.

The question now is, are we in a similar situation? Can we get out in front of the collapsing European markets? We are not sure that the analogy holds. Now, as opposed to in 2008, earnings reports are coming in strong from U.S. companies. The underlying fundamentals are solid. The recent dip may be a buying opportunity- not a selling one. Still, we are worried by the continuing issues in Europe.

This week’s factoid: the U.S. imports approximately 9,783,000 barrels of crude oil a day. Estimates put the oil spill at 5,000-90,000 barrels a day. Or, as our Senior Vice President put it, “They have no clue.”

The large losses at the end of the week were unsettling, but the week didn’t point towards a trend of loss, as we ended the week higher. Rather, it points towards volatility.  Large swings in both directions have been the norm these past few weeks. While it is emotionally taxing, we remain confident that the volatile numbers will still give way to a general uptrend.

Next week, the markets’ focus will remain on Europe. In recent weeks the trend has been to sell stocks at the end of the week. Unless something significant happens, we suspect that trend will continue in the near term.

This week’s factoid:  The term “greenback” for the Dollar comes from the nickname of Demand Notes first issued between August 1861 and April 1862 during the Civil War. The first type of paper money to achieve wide circulation, the Demand Notes were nicknamed “greenbacks” because of the distinct green color used on their reverse side.

The decline may not be any more “real” than any given correction, but it is certainly more real than just some trading error. For the week, the Dow was down 5.71%, the S&P 6.38%, and the Nasdaq 7.95%.

The problems surrounding the “PIGS” zone are more likely to blame for much of the markets’ jitters.  The resulting correction may be a buying opportunity- or may be a warning, giving a selling opportunity.  It comes down to the question of the Eurozone: can its problems be fixed? Will it be fixed soon?

This week’s factoid:  EBITDA, or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, is a favorite measure of analysts. It shows a company’s performance after taking out the effects of accounting and financing. It is also a means by which a junior analyst can make a fool of himself during an investment meeting, and be teased about it indefinitely.

“Greece” was the buzzword this week, and we believe “Spain” may be it next week.  Standard and Poor’s downgraded Spain’s debt rating this week, and the country’s statistics agency revealed that their unemployment level has risen above 20%.  Spain and Portugal are the new economies to watch, and we continue to keep an eye on Greece.

Should these countries’ problems worsen, the United States faces several issues. First, we lose the countries as customers, as they are importers of our goods. The contagion effect will see the problems spread to other Euro nations, exacerbating the problem.  And should the financial crisis reignite in Europe, it could lead to another credit crisis.

Next week is a heavy week for financial data. We will get data from the ISM, figures on auto sales and productivity, and April’s unemployment data.  187,000 jobs are forecast to have been created; such a figure would point strongly in the direction of recovery.

Starting this week, we will close each Week in review with a factoid. Did you know the term “blog” is a shortening of “web log”? There is an opinion at the firm that this was due to pure laziness on the part of bloggers.

The jobs report released Thursday pointed toward continued recovery.  Initial claims were down 24,000, but the markets expected to see claims down 25,000. The news therefore did not make for any great gains in the markets, but was a welcome continuation of a trend nonetheless.

Corporate earnings have been better than expected this week, but the phenomenon of “whisper numbers,” a buzzword in the late ‘90s, has prevented big gains in reporting stocks.

Next week is a very important one for economic data. We’ll see consumer confidence, the FOMC policy meeting, and the GDP figure for the first quarter. The GDP is expected to have grown at a 3.3% annualized rate.